A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and caused disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. They authors two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
