Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are released from different nations. Immense energy is devoted on restraining specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability afforded by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to counter approaching cruise missiles streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: defensive missiles fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its target.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a dependence that European nations are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from Washington adheres to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This pattern will, undoubtedly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership functions according to a principle familiar among international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the status quo will not change more in its advantage in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its favour.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to eliminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, mainly require sustained allied backing.
